Hurricane Beryl Models: A Look at the Forecasting Tools Used to Track the Storm

Hurricane Beryl was the third hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, and its rapid development and movement caught many by surprise. The storm formed on July 13 in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and quickly strengthened into a hurricane before making landfall on July 13 in Cape Verde. In this article, we’ll take a look at the hurricane models that were used to track the storm and predict its path.

What are Hurricane Models?

Hurricane models are computer programs that use mathematical formulas and data from various sources to forecast the track and intensity of a hurricane. These models take into account a wide range of factors, including atmospheric conditions, oceanic conditions, and the storm’s internal dynamics. There are several different types of hurricane models, including:

• Statistical models: These models use historical data to predict the future behavior of a hurricane.
• Dynamical models: These models use complex mathematical equations to simulate the behavior of a hurricane.
• Ensemble models: These models use multiple runs of the same model to generate a range of possible forecasts.

The Top Hurricane Models

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses a variety of hurricane models to track storms, including:

1. Global Forecast System (GFS) Model: Developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the GFS model is one of the most widely used hurricane models. It uses a global forecast system that takes into account atmospheric conditions, oceanic conditions, and the storm’s internal dynamics.
2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Model: The ECMWF model is considered one of the most accurate hurricane models, according to the NHC. It uses a more complex set of equations than the GFS model and takes into account more detailed atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
3. Climate Forecast System (CFS) Model: The CFS model is also developed by NCEP and uses a global forecast system similar to the GFS model, but with a focus on longer-term forecasting.
4. Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model: The HWRF model is a high-resolution model that is specifically designed to forecast hurricanes. It uses a combination of statistical and dynamical models to predict the track and intensity of a hurricane.

How Accurate are Hurricane Models?

Hurricane models are not perfect, and their accuracy can depend on a variety of factors, including the complexity of the storm and the quality of the data used to initialize the model. According to the NHC, the GFS model is generally accurate to within about 100 miles of the actual track of a hurricane, while the ECMWF model is accurate to within about 50 miles.

Conclusion

Hurricane Beryl was a reminder of the importance of using accurate hurricane models to track storms and predict their impact. The NHC and other forecasting organizations use a variety of hurricane models to generate forecasts, and the accuracy of these models has improved significantly in recent years. By understanding how hurricane models work and the factors that affect their accuracy, we can better prepare for the impact of these powerful storms.